2020 Emmy Predictions for Drama Series & Acting: Matt Roush’s Picks
When the Emmy Awards ceremony airs Sept. 20 on ABC, it won’t look like business as usual. But pandemic or no pandemic, what hasn’t changed is the increasingly competitive nature of the various races, with so many more platforms and so much talent vying for recognition.
In these galleries, critic Matt Roush analyzes the categories, suggesting which nominees are most likely to, and should, win. And after having scoured the official ballot, he also points out contenders he wishes had made the cut.
Scroll down for Matt’s picks in the categories of Drama Series, Lead Drama Actor and Actress, Supporting Drama Actor and Actress, and Guest Drama Actor and Actress.
72nd Annual Primetime Emmy Awards, Sunday, September 20, 8/7c, ABC
CATEGORY: Drama Series
Better Call Saul, AMC
The Crown, Netflix
The Handmaid’s Tale, Hulu
Killing Eve, BBC America/AMC
The Mandalorian, Disney+
Ozark, Netflix
Stranger Things, Netflix
Succession, HBO
There are few sure things in the Emmy race this year, but it would be hard to bet against Succession. Blistering, impeccably acted and written, scandalous family intrigue at its juiciest. Some see momentum in a resurgent Ozark, and The Crown is still TV’s classiest act. But I’m all in with the unscrupulous Roy clan.
Most Likely to Win, and Should Win
Succession
Possible Spoilers
Ozark, The Crown
Wish They'd Been Nominated
David Makes Man, Evil, The Good Fight, Orange Is the New Black, Outlander, Pose, This Is Us
CATEGORY: Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Jason Bateman, Ozark
Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us
Steve Carell, The Morning Show
Brian Cox, Succession
Billy Porter, Pose
Jeremy Strong, Succession
Will Succession‘s father (Brian Cox) or son (Jeremy Strong) emerge as the winner? Hard to say. Emmy logic goes with the veteran actor, and while Strong’s internalized performance is amazing, it’s not as showy. If they cancel each other out, look for Jason Bateman to add an acting trophy to his directing Emmy for Ozark. But if the voters are diversity-minded, don’t count out a repeat win for Pose‘s flamboyant Billy Porter.
Most Likely to Win
Brian Cox or Jeremy Strong (odds favor Cox)
Should Win
Jeremy Strong
Possible Spoilers
Jason Bateman, Billy Porter
Wish They'd Been Nominated
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul (what were they thinking!); Sam Heughan, Outlander; Freddie Highmore, The Good Doctor; John Malkovich, The New Pope; Michael Sheen, Prodigal Son (should have been submitted as supporting); Milo Ventimiglia, This Is Us; Forest Whitaker, Godfather of Harlem
CATEGORY: Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show
Olivia Colman, The Crown
Jodie Comer, Killing Eve
Laura Linney, Ozark
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Zendaya, Euphoria
As the cunning Lady Macbeth of Ozark, the terrific Laura Linney seems to have this category sewn up—although the competition is stiff, with TV and movie royalty represented in Jennifer Aniston‘s slick comeback as the embattled anchor on The Morning Show and Olivia Colman‘s powerful introductory season as Queen Elizabeth II.
Most Likely to Win
Laura Linney
Should Win
Olivia Colman
Possible Spoiler
Jennifer Aniston
Wish They'd Been Nominated
Caitriona Balfe, Outlander; Christine Baranski, The Good Fight; Claire Danes, Homeland; Katja Herbers, Evil; Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies; Mj Rodriguez, Pose; Cobie Smulders, Stumptown
CATEGORY: Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Nicholas Braun, Succession
Kieran Culkin, Succession
Billy Crudup, The Morning Show
Mark Duplass, The Morning Show
Giancarlo Esposito, Better Call Saul
Matthew Macfadyen, Succession
Bradley Whitford, The Handmaid’s Tale
Jeffrey Wright, Westworld
Oh my, how to choose between all of that Succession talent. Personally, my money is on Matthew Macfadyen, a versatile TV veteran—check him out in this year’s Quiz—who suffers exquisite humiliation at the hands of the family into which he has ambitiously but haplessly married. His co-stars may cancel him out, though, and odds-makers are favoring Billy Crudup‘s Machiavellian TV exec, a worthy successor to Network‘s Faye Dunaway.
Most Likely to Win
Billy Crudup
Should Win
Matthew Macfadyen
Possible Spoiler
Kieran Culkin
Wish They'd Been Nominated
Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul (what were they drinking?); Tom Pelphrey, Ozark (huge oversight); Griffin Dunne, This Is Us; Michael Emerson, Evil; Nathan Lane, Penny Dreadful: City of Angels; Delroy Lindo, The Good Fight; Josh O’Connor, The Crown; Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
CATEGORY: Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown
Laura Dern, Big Little Lies
Julia Garner, Ozark
Fiona Shaw, Killing Eve
Thandie Newton, Westworld
Sarah Snook, Succession
Meryl Streep, Big Little Lies
Samira Wiley, The Handmaid’s Tale
Is it possible Meryl Streep could be denied an Emmy? Seems impossible, but the further the meh second season of Big Little Lies recedes in memory, the larger Helena Bonham Carter looms for her spectacularly entertaining performance as the fun-loving but eternally frustrated Princess Margaret. Still, Streep’s mother-in-law from hell is a formidable presence. And if Succession sweeps, it could boost Sarah Snook as the wily daughter who deserves to, but may never, inherit the corporate throne.
Most Likely to Win, Should Win
Helena Bonham Carter, with Meryl Streep a very close second
Possible Spoilers
Sarah Snook (plus past winners Julia Garner and Thandie Newton; this is the Emmys, after all)
Wish They'd Been Nominated
Rhea Seehorn (were they asleep?), Better Call Saul; Danielle Brooks, Orange Is the New Black; Cynthia Erivo, The Outsider; Natasha Lyonne, Orange Is the New Black; Audra McDonald, The Good Fight; Janet McTeer, Ozark; Chrissy Metz, This Is Us; Kate Mulgrew, Orange Is the New Black; Kelly Reilly, Yellowstone; Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid’s Tale
CATEGORY: Guest Actor in a Drama Series
Jason Bateman, The Outsider
James Cromwell, Succession
Giancarlo Esposito, The Mandalorian
Ron Cephas Jones, This Is Us
Andrew Scott, Black Mirror
Martin Short, The Morning Show
Denied a nomination last year as Fleabag‘s Hot Priest, Andrew Scott should score a win, chewing the upholstery as the world’s most desperate ride-share driver. (Starring in an episode of Emmy darling Black Mirror can’t hurt his chances.) I’m also rooting for Jason Bateman, whose tragic fate in the opening chapter of The Outsider haunted the remainder of that series.
Most Likely to Win
Andrew Scott
Should Win
Scott or Jason Bateman
Possible Spoiler
Past winner Ron Cephas Jones
Wish They'd Been Nominated
Beau Bridges, Homeland; Charles Dance, The Crown; Robert Forster, Amazing Stories; Michael J. Fox, The Good Fight; Dermot Mulroney, Prodigal Son; Timothy Omundson, This Is Us
CATEGORY: Guest Actress in a Drama Series
Alexis Bledel, The Handmaid’s Tale
Laverne Cox, Orange Is the New Black
Cherry Jones, Succession
Phylicia Rashad, This Is Us
Cicely Tyson, How to Get Away with Murder
Harriet Walter, Succession
After five nominations as one of the few redeeming features of How to Get Away with Murder, the legendary Cicely Tyson might just win for the final lap. The competition is all grade-A talent, but with the exception of Cherry Jones (who won in this category last year for The Handmaid’s Tale) as a steely media rival in Succession, the scene-stealing in this category isn’t as memorable as usual.
Most Likely to Win
Cicely Tyson
Should Win
Cherry Jones
Wish They'd Been Nominated
Maria Doyle Kennedy, Outlander; Jane Lapotaire, The Crown; Jennifer Morrison, This Is Us
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