2021 Emmy Predictions for Drama Series & Performances: Matt Roush’s Picks
Emmys
The Emmy Awards are by tradition among the hardest to predict, because it’s often impossible to know just when a show or star’s moment in the spotlight has arrived—or when the Emmy voters will turn away from the tried and true to celebrate the new kid on the block.
Ahead of the 2021 Primetime Emmys, Senior Critic Matt Roush takes a crack at reading the tea leaves to pick the presumed winners, while revealing which nominees are the most deserving and lamenting the most obnoxious snubs.
Scroll down for Matt’s picks in the categories of Drama Series, Lead Drama Actor and Actress, Supporting Drama Actor and Actress, and Guest Drama Actor and Actress.
73rd Annual Primetime Emmy Awards, Sunday, September 19, 8/7c, CBS
Outstanding Drama Series
The Boys (Amazon Prime Video)
Bridgerton (Netflix)
The Crown (Netflix)
The Mandalorian (Disney+)
Lovecraft Country (HBO)
Pose (FX)
The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
This Is Us (NBC)
The Frontrunners
With Succession out of the running this year, Netflix’s deluxe royal drama The Crown finally is positioned to take that elusive top drama honor—and for one of its strongest seasons, featuring the arrival of Princess Diana and Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. (But wouldn’t it be fun if This Is Us surprised everyone and won as a reminder of the power of crowd-pleasing network TV? It will never happen, but it would do a lot to correct the Emmy bias toward streaming and premium cable.)
Most Likely to Win
The Crown
Should Win
The Crown
Should Have Been Nominated
Perry Mason (HBO)
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Regé-Jean Page, Bridgerton
Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us
Billy Porter, Pose
Jonathan Majors, Lovecraft Country
Matthew Rhys, Perry Mason
Josh O’Connor, The Crown
The Frontrunners
The real Prince Charles is still waiting for his coronation, but as the conflicted young heir cornered into a loveless marriage, Josh O’Connor will likely take the crown over a very strong field. Billy Porter deserves a second Emmy for his tragically defiant swan song in Pose, and former The Americans winner Matthew Rhys was a stunner as he turned an iconic TV character into a flawed film-noir anti-hero in HBO’s revisionist origin story for Perry Mason.
Most Likely to Win
Josh O’Connor
Should Win
Billy Porter
Should Have Been Nominated
Freddie Highmore, The Good Doctor (this and every year)
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Emma Corrin, The Crown
Olivia Colman, The Crown
Uzo Aduba, In Treatment
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Jurnee Smollett, Lovecraft Country
Mj Rodriguez, Pose
The Frontrunners
Some very worthy candidates here: Mj Rodriguez sensational in her groundbreaking Pose role, three-time winner Uzo Aduba as In Treatment’s compassionate new therapist, former Handmaid’s champ Elizabeth Moss tasting freedom and seeking revenge in a strong comeback year, and Jurnee Smollett on fire in Lovecraft’s supernatural allegory. But the battle comes down to The Crown’s leading ladies, and while Oscar winner Olivia Colman as the repressed queen has yet to win Emmy gold in four tries, Emma Corrin’s powerful presence as the insecure princess seems a fresher choice.
Most Likely to Win
Emma Corrin
Should Win
Mj Rodriguez (for Emmy history’s sake)
Should Have Been Nominated
Rebecca Breeds, Clarice
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Michael K. Williams, Lovecraft Country
Bradley Whitford, The Handmaid’s Tale
Max Minghella, The Handmaid’s Tale
O-T Fagbenle, The Handmaid’s Tale
John Lithgow, Perry Mason
Tobias Menzies, The Crown
Giancarlo Esposito, The Mandalorian
Chris Sullivan, This Is Us
The Frontrunners
The tragedy of Michael K. Williams’ untimely death is only amplified by his front-runner status in this category for another bold performance in a memorable HBO series. Even if he weren’t now the sentimental favorite, he was already the odds-on choice as the Lovecraft hero’s conflicted, closeted father.
Most Likely to Win
Michael K. Williams
Should Win
Michael K. Williams
Should Have Been Nominated
John Benjamin Hickey, In Treatment
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Gillian Anderson, The Crown
Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown
Emerald Fennell, The Crown
Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale
Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid’s Tale
Samira Wiley, The Handmaid’s Tale
Madeline Brewer, The Handmaid’s Tale
Aunjanue Ellis, Lovecraft Country
The Frontrunners
Earning this year’s inevitable slam-dunk honors: Gillian Anderson for her astonishing transformation into the formidable “Iron Lady” herself, Margaret Thatcher, a role that earned Meryl Streep one of her Oscars. I’m still hoping Yvonne Strahovski will someday be recognized for her brave work on The Handmaid’s Tale, but it won’t be this year.
Most Likely to Win
Gillian Anderson
Should Win
Gillian Anderson
Should Have Been Nominated
Wunmi Mosaku, Lovecraft Country
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