2021 Emmy Predictions for Limited Series & Performances, Movies & Specials: Matt Roush’s Picks
Emmys
The Emmy Awards are by tradition among the hardest to predict, because it’s often impossible to know just when a show or star’s moment in the spotlight has arrived—or when the Emmy voters will turn away from the tried and true to celebrate the new kid on the block.
Senior Critic Matt Roush takes a crack at reading the tea leaves to pick the presumed winners, while revealing which nominees are the most deserving and lamenting the most obnoxious snubs.
Scroll down for Matt’s picks in the categories of Limited Series, Lead Actor and Actress in a Limited Series or Movie, Supporting Actor and Actress in a Limited Series or Movie, Variety Talk Series, Variety Special, and Competition Program.
73rd Annual Primetime Emmy Awards, Sunday, September 19, 8/7c, CBS
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Mare of Easttown (HBO)
I May Destroy You (HBO)
WandaVision (Disney+)
The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix)
The Underground Railroad (Amazon Prime Video)
The Frontrunners
For years the long-form limited series has been among the most heated races, with exceptional brand-defining projects duking it out. 2021 is no exception, and an argument could be made for each of these remarkable works. But only one can emerge on top, and industry consensus favors The Queen’s Gambit, the riveting drama that made chess sexy and kept audiences hooked during the long pandemic lockdown. HBO’s Mare of Easttown is a strong runner-up, with its American small-town intrigue evoking high-end British mysteries like Broadchurch.
Most Likely to Win
The Queen’s Gambit
Should Win
Mare of Easttown
Should Have Been Nominated
The Good Lord Bird (Showtime)
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
Paul Bettany, WandaVision
Hugh Grant, The Undoing
Ewan McGregor, Halston
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Leslie Odom Jr., Hamilton
The Frontrunners
Of all this year’s snubs, and there are always many, none are more confounding than the absence of Ethan Hawke’s manic portrayal of abolitionist John Brown in Showtime’s ignominiously ignored historical drama The Good Lord Bird. He would likely have won in this category if nominated. And while my admiration for Broadway’s Hamilton is second to none, crowding the list with performances better suited to the variety/music categories is this year’s biggest Emmy scandal. Of the remaining nominees, it’s a toss-up between Paul Bettany’s inspired blend of sitcom and tragic action hero in the wondrous WandaVision or Hugh Grant’s chilling take on domestic villainy in The Undoing. Because Grant deserved an Emmy for his earlier walk on the dark side in A Very English Scandal, I’ll go with him.
Most Likely to Win
Hugh Grant, The Undoing
Should Win
Paul Bettany, WandaVision
Should Have Been Nominated
Ethan Hawke, The Good Lord Bird
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
Kate Winslet, Mare of Easttown
Michaela Coel, I May Destroy You
Anya Taylor-Joy, The Queen’s Gambit
Elizabeth Olsen, WandaVision
Cynthia Erivo, Genius: Aretha
The Frontrunners
Couldn’t there be a five-way tie? Probably not, but I’m hard-pressed to decide between these very distinctive tour-de-force performances. The wildly talented Michaela Coel will probably have to settle for a writing Emmy, and Elizabeth Olsen won’t get enough credit for her chameleon skill at masking tragedy beneath ever-shifting classic-comedy personas. Which leaves top contenders Anya Taylor-Joy, rightly celebrated for her electrifying star turn as a damaged chess prodigy, and Kate Winslet disappearing into the role of a hard-luck small-down detective. Because awards tend to go to the showier talent, I’m predicting Taylor-Joy.
Most Likely to Win
Anya Taylor-Joy
Should Win
Kate Winslet
Should Have Been Nominated
Thuso Mbedu, The Underground Railroad
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
Jean Smart, Mare of Easttown
Julianne Nicholson, Mare of Easttown
Kathryn Hahn, WandaVision
Phillipa Soo, Hamilton
Renee Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton
Moses Ingram, The Queen’s Gambit
The Frontrunners
It would be fun to see Jean Smart win twice—once for comedy (Hacks), and once as Mare’s sardonic mother. I’m also partial to Julianne Nicholson’s heartbreaking performance as Mare’s best friend. But hands down the most memorable scene-stealer this year was Kathryn Hahn’s nosy neighbor-turned-witchy nemesis in WandaVision, a hoot for all seasons.
Most Likely to Win
Kathryn Hahn
Should Win
Kathryn Hahn
Should Have Been Nominated
Marielle Heller, The Queen’s Gambit
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
Daveed Diggs, Hamilton
Jonathan Groff, Hamilton
Anthony Ramos, Hamilton
Thomas Brodie-Sangster, The Queen’s Gambit
Evan Peters, Mare of Easttown
Paapa Essiedu, I May Destroy You
The Frontrunners
No disrespect intended to Hamilton, but really? No Donald Sutherland from The Undoing? No Bill Camp from The Queen’s Gambit? No William Jackson Harper from The Underground Railroad? Of those that somehow made the cut, Evan Peters’ ill-fated detective in Mare from Easttown left the deepest impression.
Most Likely to Win
Evan Peters
Should Win
Evan Peters
Should Have Been Nominated
See above, and add young Joshua Caleb Johnson, the young hero of The Good Lord Bird
Outstanding Variety Talk Series
Conan (TBS)
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS)
The Daily Show with Trevor Noah (Comedy Central)
Jimmy Kimmel Live (ABC)
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)
The Frontrunners
Even in a challenging year for the genre, it’s hard to bet against the show that has won for the last five consecutive years. (But in that dream scenario where the Emmys surprise us in all the right ways, how satisfying would it be for Conan O’Brien to get a win on his way out?)
Most Likely to Win
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Should Win
Jimmy Kimmel Live (purely personal preference)
Should Have Been Nominated
Late Night with Seth Meyers (NBC)
Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)
American Utopia (HBO)
Bo Burnham: Inside (Netflix)
Dave Chappelle 8:46 (Netflix)
Friends: The Reunion (HBO Max)
Hamilton (Disney+)
A West Wing Special (HBO Max)
The Frontrunners
Such a mixed bag. How can you compare innovative stand-up solo acts against elaborate stage productions? Given the Emmy love shown to Hamilton in other categories, it seems unlikely to lose, although Bo Burnham’s unique take on life and anxiety during the pandemic is timely and memorable enough to deliver an upset.
Most Likely to Win
Hamilton
Should Win
Bo Burnham: Inside
Should Have Been Nominated
Between the World and Me (HBO)
Outstanding Competition Program
The Amazing Race (CBS)
Nailed It! (Netflix)
RuPaul’s Drag Race (VH1)
Top Chef (Bravo)
The Voice (NBC)
The Frontrunners
I have a soft spot for The Amazing Race, a longtime (long ago) multiple Emmy winner, because of the nostalgia it evokes for world travel during a safer time. And Nailed It! makes me laugh every time they don’t. But RuPaul’s celebratory drags-travaganza has sashayed away with a win the last three years, so why stop now?
Most Likely to Win
RuPaul’s Drag Race
Should Win
RuPaul’s Drag Race
Should Have Been Nominated
Tough as Nails (CBS)
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