2022 Emmy Predictions for Drama Series & Performances: Matt Roush’s Picks
Emmys
The Emmys are notoriously difficult to predict. Some winners keep winning year after year — until they don’t. You never know when a fresh newcomer will muscle their way into the winner’s circle or when a long overdue contender will finally get the recognition they’ve long deserved.
With that in mind, senior critic Matt Roush gives some educated guesses for this year’s drama categories, along with some personal picks and shout-outs to those who should have made the cut.
Scroll through this year’s nominees for Outstanding Drama Series and drama acting categories and Matt’s picks, below, ahead of the 2022 Emmy Awards.
2022 Emmy Awards, Monday, September 12, 8/7c, NBC and Peacock
Outstanding Drama Series
Better Call Saul, AMC
Euphoria, HBO
Ozark, Netflix
Severance, Apple TV+
Squid Game, Netflix
Stranger Things, Netflix
Succession, HBO
Yellowjackets, Showtime
Most Likely to Win: Succession
A tough call between the 2020 Emmy winner and the South Korean thriller Squid Game, which many believe could pull off a Parasite-style upset in this very competitive category. Apple TV+’s Severance has great buzz, so does Showtime’s berserk Yellowjackets, and most everyone feels Better Call Saul deserves the sort of Emmy love that its predecessor Breaking Bad took for granted. But HBO’s dysfunctional family drama is the year’s most nominated scripted series of any type and seems to have the momentum.
Should Win: Severance
For its mind-blowing originality, I’m rooting for the show that has stuck with me the longest. For sustained outrageous intensity, Squid Game. For exceeding expectations and for its legacy, Better Call Saul. Can’t go wrong with any of these picks, including the enthralling Succession.
Should Have Been Nominated: This Is Us, NBC
It’s a shame and a travesty that the Emmy voters turned their collective backs on the final season of TV’s most heartfelt drama, making it the second time in three years that no drama from the broadcast arena has been recognized. It’s only likely to get worse, because ambitious and sophisticated dramatic storytelling of this type is getting harder to find on the legacy networks.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Jason Bateman, Ozark
Brian Cox, Succession
Lee Jung-jae, Squid Game
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Adam Scott, Severance
Jeremy Strong, Succession
Most Likely to Win: Lee Jung-jae
Winner of the Screen Actors Guild award as Squid Game’s desperately harried hero, the fearless South Korean actor could make Emmy history upstaging his better-known competition. If the Succession stars cancel each other out, hard to imagine anyone else winning.
Should Win: Lee Jung-jae
Much as I’d like to see Bob Odenkirk finally get the recognition he deserves as the endearingly flawed Saul Goodman, ditto for Jason Bateman as Ozark’s tightly wound anti-hero, Jung-jae’s intensely overwrought performance is so bold it can’t be dismissed.
Should Have Been Nominated
This was pretty much the list I’d predicted, so no real argument with these excellent choices. I’d have been happy if This Is Us star Sterling K. Brown (for a victory lap) or Winning Time’s buoyant John C. Reilly had also made the cut, but you can’t have everything.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Jodie Comer, Killing Eve
Laura Linney, Ozark
Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Show
Zendaya, Euphoria
Most Likely to Win: Zendaya
This is pure conjecture. Euphoria doesn’t speak to me, but Emmy history favors the repeat winner. There’s also serious buzz around the sly, subversive performances of Yellowjackets’ Melanie Lynskey and especially Laura Linney in her last tour of duty as Ozark’s cunning Lady Macbeth.
Should Win: Laura Linney
Ozark owes much of its sustained allure to Linney’s calculating villainess, who even at her worst made you almost believe she was doing it all to protect her family.
Should Have Been Nominated: Mandy Moore, This Is Us
Doing double duty as the dying matriarch and beloved mom of memory in the wrenching final season of This Is Us, Mandy Moore earned a TCA (Television Critics Association) Award for dramatic achievement this year. How could the Emmy voters ignore her fine work? (And don’t get me started on Killing Eve’s train wreck of a final season. Love the stars, but those nominations are just lazy.)
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Nicholas Braun, Succession
Billy Crudup, The Morning Show
Kieran Culkin, Succession
Park Hae-soo, Squid Game
Matthew Macfadyen, Succession
John Turturro, Severance
Christopher Walken, Severance
O Yeong-su, Squid Game
Most Likely to Win: Matthew Macfadyen
I’ll just keep predicting my favorite actor from the Succession ensemble until he finally wins. It’s possible if the many multiple co-stars from Succession, Severance and Squid Game cancel each other out, Billy Crudup could repeat in this tough category. But the most likely contenders are Kieran Culkin as the Roy family’s black sheep and Macfadyen as the long-suffering son-in-law.
Should Win: Matthew Macfadyen
He cracks me up and makes me cringe in nearly every scene. He’s also way overdue.
Should Have Been Nominated: David Harbour, Stranger Things
This wasn’t my favorite season of the bloated horror homage, but as the sheriff imprisoned in a Soviet prison camp, David Harbour‘s Hopper suffered at least as extravagantly as all of those Squid Game contestants.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Patricia Arquette, Severance
Julia Garner, Ozark
Hoyeon Jung, Squid Game
Christina Ricci, Yellowjackets
Rhea Seehorn, Better Call Saul
J. SmithCameron, Succession
Sarah Snook, Succession
Sydney Sweeney, Euphoria
Most Likely to Win: Julia Garner
The profane spark plug who ignited all sorts of deadly mischief on Ozark, the role of Ruth Langmore put Garner on the map and has already earned her two Emmys. Don’t be surprised if she takes home a third for her swan song.
Should Win: Rhea Seehorn
As Kim Wexler, Better Call Saul’s partner in crime — up to a point — and voice-of-reason soulmate to the morally dubious love of her life, Seehorn has been underappreciated too long for her tricky, emotionally resonant and vividly entertaining work. The nomination was overdue. A win would be even more satisfying.
Should Have Been Nominated: Youn Yuh-jung, Pachinko
Youn Yuh-jung, Oscar winner for Minari, was just as luminous in this affecting Korean/Japanese saga as the older version of the main character Sunja, every poignant memory etched on her expressive face.
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