2024 Emmy Predictions for Drama Categories: Critic’s Picks
Emmys
Some years are easier to predict than others at the Emmy Awards. While there is always the opportunity for a surprise upset, this year’s roster of nominees is dominated by a few clear front-runners.
Senior critic Matt Roush breaks down the major categories in drama, comedy, and limited series/anthology with thoughts on what and who is most likely to win, should win, and should have been nominated.
The ceremony, hosted by father-son team Eugene and Dan Levy (Schitt’s Creek), airs Sunday, September 15, on ABC at 8/7c, 5 pm/PT.
Drama Series
3 Body Problem, Netflix
The Crown, Netflix
Fallout, Prime Video
The Gilded Age, HBO
The Morning Show, Apple TV+
Mr. & Mrs. Smith, Prime Video
Shogun, FX
Slow Horses, Apple TV+
This should have been a wide-open field, with Succession over and favorites including The White Lotus and The Last of Us between seasons. While we’re thrilled that this opened the door for offbeat shows like Slow Horses—a dark horse to champion if ever there was one—the race was upended when FX ordered a second season of its magnificent historical epic Shogun, moving it from limited series to the regular drama field. The most nominated of any series, Shogun swept the Creative Arts awards and is on a path to dominate in the series categories.
Will/Most Likely to Win: Shogun
Should Win: Shogun
Should Have Been Nominated: For All Mankind (Apple TV+)
Drama Actress
Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show
Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age
Maya Erskine, Mr. & Mrs. Smith
Anna Sawai, Shogun
Imelda Staunton, The Crown
Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Show
As the conflicted translator caught between two worlds, saddled with a tragic family history, Anna Sawai was the enigmatic center of Shogun and deserves to be swept into the winners’ circle along with everything else Shogun touched. Imelda Staunton is the only actress to play The Crown’s Queen Elizabeth II to go away empty-handed, but in its final season, she often felt more like a supporting character.
Will/Most Likely to Win: Anna Sawai, Shogun
Should Win: Anna Sawai, Shogun
Should Have Been Nominated: Emma Stone, The Curse (mixed feelings about the series, but she nailed her awful character)
Drama Actor
Idris Elba, Hijack
Donald Glover, Mr. & Mrs. Smith
Walton Goggins, Fallout
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
Hiroyuki Sanada, Shogun
Dominic West, The Crown
Lee Jung-Jae’s 2022 Best Actor Emmy for Squid Game sets a precedent for Shogun lead actor Hiroyuki Sanada to take home an Emmy for a non-English-speaking role. Could the Emmys possibly shower Shogun with awards and ignore the powerful actor playing the cunning feudal lord who would be Shogun? Seems unlikely. My other favorite choice is Oscar winner Gary Oldman, hilarious yet commanding as the slovenly leader of a group of disgraced spies in Slow Horses.
Will/Most Likely to Win: Hiroyuki Sanada, Shogun
Should Win: Hiroyuki Sanada, Shogun
Should Have Been Nominated: Timothy Olyphant, Justified: City Primeval
Drama Supporting Actress
Christine Baranski, The Gilded Age
Nicole Beharie, The Morning Show
Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown
Greta Lee, The Morning Show
Lesley Manville, The Crown
Karen Pittman, The Morning Show
Holland Taylor, The Morning Show
One of the few drama categories where Shogun was shut out is overrun with multiple nominations from two series. Odds favor Elizabeth Debicki as the doomed Princess Diana—she was upset last time around by The White Lotus‘ Jennifer Coolidge—but competition is stiff from two veteran Emmy winners: Christine Baranski as The Gilded Age’s dragon lady—“Soup? For luncheon?” is still one of my favorite lines from last year—and Holland Taylor as The Morning Show’s embattled former board chairman.
Will/Most Likely to Win: Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown
Should Win: Christine Baranski, The Gilded Age
Should Have Been Nominated: Moeka Hoshi, Shogun (as Usami Fuji, the widowed consort to the “barbarian” Blackthorne)
Drama Supporting Actor
Tadanobu Asano, Shogun
Billy Crudup, The Morning Show
Mark Duplass, The Morning Show
Jon Hamm, The Morning Show
Takehiro Hira, Shogun
Jack Lowden, Slow Horses
Jonathan Pryce, The Crown
If Shogun truly sweeps, this is good news for Tadanobu Asano, so memorable as the scheming Lord Yabushige. And yet this category feels like more of a tossup, with The Morning Show’s Billy Crudup (a 2020 winner) and Jon Hamm as his devious adversary both strong contenders. I have a soft spot for Jack Lowden as Slow Horses’ put-upon agent River Cartwright, but it would take a major upset for this to be anything but an honor to be nominated.
Will/Most Likely to Win: Billy Crudup, The Morning Show (runner-up Tadanobu Asano, Shogun)
Should Win: Jon Hamm, The Morning Show
Should Have Been Nominated: Ke Huy Quan, Loki
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