Your Definitive Oscars 2025 Predictions List
With Hollywood consumed by the devastation of the California wildfires, it had been a mostly subdued awards season. But with controversies erupting over various Oscar nominees and high-drama and memorable speeches unfolding at other awards ceremonies, things have finally kicked into high gear as the industry gets ready to celebrate the best films and performances at the 97th annual Oscars on Sunday night.
There’s genuine suspense in a number of the top races. For Best Actor, can young Hollywood icon Timothée Chalamet come from behind and overtake Adrien Brody, thereby besting Brody as the current youngest-ever winner in that category? For Best Actress, will the celebrated veteran Demi Moore triumph over budding ingenue Mikey Madison? As an oft-overlooked older actress, Moore faced harsh treatment and lack of opportunity in Hollywood for years, echoing the reality faced by her character in The Substance. Could that meta narrative work in her favor?
The Best Picture race has been one of the most volatile in years, with several contenders moving into frontrunner status and then falling back, including Emilia Peréz, The Brutalist, Wicked, and A Complete Unknown. Now it looks like Anora and Conclave will be duking it out for the gold. Or could a surprise be in store for the biggest award of the night?
Finally, will we see memorably weird and wonderful speeches from the likes of Kieran Culkin, Chalamet, and the nearly two-dozen other winners who will be crowned? Fingers crossed!
Find out all the answers when the 97th annual Academy Awards air on Sunday, March 2 at 7/6c on ABC and Hulu from the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood. The show will be hosted by funnyman Conan O’Brien, in his first stint as Oscar emcee. For viewers keeping score at home, we’re breaking down the frontrunners and top contenders in the night’s hottest races.
2025 Oscars, Sunday, March 2, 7/6c, ABC and Hulu
Best Picture
Will Win: Anora
Also nominated: Conclave, Emilia Peréz, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Wicked, Dune: Part Two, The Substance, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys
The big news here is that we finally have a two-film horserace for the night’s biggest prize. Since last fall, the Best Picture contest has been completely unsettled and largely wide open, with different films rising to frontrunner status, then falling back into the pack. Emilia Peréz, the year’s most nominated film, had been the Best Picture frontrunner, then dropped by the wayside when controversy engulfed its transgender star, Karla Sofía Gascón, after her sordid history of posting inflammatory, bigoted and xenophobic tweets came to light. Some voters have been drawn to the mega-hit musical Wicked because of its popularity ($730 million in worldwide grosses) and its timely allegory of a fascist leader using manipulation, trickery, and scaremongering to distract and win over the masses. A Complete Unknown is an appealing biopic of a beloved but enigmatic musical icon, Bob Dylan, that could appeal to the Academy’s Boomer contingent. The sprawling post-war saga The Brutalist, about the myth of the American dream and the compromises artists are forced to make in the name of commerce, is the kind of sweeping, grand-statement fare that the Academy used to go ga-ga over. And even in January, its chances at Best Picture were high.
But this race has been shaping up as a showdown between Conclave, which won BAFTA’s Best Film trophy and the top prize at the Screen Actors Guild Awards last weekend, and the surging Anora, which had been shut out of wins at the Golden Globes. Conclave, about the political machinations and secret intrigue of cardinals electing a new Pope, is the kind of finely-crafted ensemble picture, with just enough artistic panache, that used to dominate the Hollywood of old. Whereas Anora feels fresher and more vibrant, not to mention exhilaratingly alive, in its propulsive story of a feisty stripper and escort who fights against powerful forces. The tough-talking-yet-charming young woman gets thrust into the head-spinning orbit of a party-boy who just happens to be the son of a Russian oligarch. Then all hell breaks loose. Anora won the Palme d’Or at Cannes, but it really moved into the pole position as the Best Picture frontrunner after nabbing the top prizes at the Producers Guild and Directors Guild awards. Yes, Conclave could play spoiler, but look for the underdog Anora to be anointed the victor here.
Best Director
Will Win: Sean Baker, Anora
Also nominated: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist; Jacques Audiard, Emilia Peréz; James Mangold, A Complete Unknown; Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Visionary French writer-director Jacques Audiard was known for intense, audacious feats of cinema like The Beat That My Heart Skipped and A Prophet. With his gonzo Emilia Peréz, part gritty crime drama, part kinetic song-and-dance musical, part gender-affirming redemption story, Audiard seemed poised for Oscar glory. Then he got lambasted for portraying Mexico in a negative, stereotypical light and for his “retrograde” depiction of trans identity. So Best Director looks to be a face-off between Brady Corbet’s towering, formalist direction for The Brutalist and Sean Baker’s mesmerizing work on Anora, marked by its frenetic cinematic set pieces and mix of propulsive action and intense drama. Both are younger indie mavericks who’ve broken through Oscars’ gates with different envelope-pushing styles. In the precursor awards, Baker (who’s previously directed Tangerine and The Florida Project) pocketed the Director Guild of America award, while Corbet scored Golden Globe and the BAFTA awards for best director. This category will be a suspenseful photo finish and could go either way. But look for Baker to take home the gold.
Best Actor
Will Win: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Also nominated: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist; Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice; Ralph Fiennes, Conclave; Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
For most of awards season, Adrien Brody has seemed quietly poised to take home his second Oscar for his haunting performance in The Brutalist, in which he plays a Holocaust survivor, Hungarian-Jewish architect Lázló Tóth, who emigrates to America as a war refugee and struggles to achieve the American dream. Brody, who nabbed this award in 2002 for another Holocaust survival drama The Pianist, already won the BAFTA and Golden Globe awards. But now there’s an insurgent threatening to overtake Brody. Timothée Chalamet, who’s become a veritable pop culture icon, just won the Screen Actors Guild Award (and delivered a weird and charming speech) for his shape-shifting portrayal of the enigmatic, confounding music legend Bob Dylan in the biopic A Complete Unknown. At 29, Chalamet would become the youngest ever Best Actor Oscar winner in history — in an ironic twist, he’d be besting Brody, who won for his breakthrough performance in The Pianist when he was almost 30. The category’s other contenders — Sebastian Stan as a young Donald Trump in The Apprentice, Ralph Fiennes as a Catholic Cardinal investigating secrets and scandals in the election of new Pope in Conclave, and Colman Domingo as an incarcerated man who finds purpose in a prison theater program in Sing Sing — have done outstanding work. But this race comes down to Brody and Chalamet, with the surging Chalamet pulling off the upset.
Best Actress
Will Win: Demi Moore, The Substance
Also nominated: Mikey Madison, Anora; Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Peréz; Cynthia Erivo, Wicked; Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
This race is almost always hotly competitive, and this year has been no different. Gascón made history as the first trans actor to be nominated for an Oscar for her kinetic portrayal of the title character in Emilia Peréz. But her Oscar campaign went up in spectacular flames after her sordid history of posting inflammatory, bigoted and xenophobic tweets came to light. Since last fall, ingenue actress Mikey Madison (Better Things) was at the front of the pack for her explosive, riveting turn as a young stripper and escort in Anora. But the past month has seen beloved veteran actress Demi Moore surge to the front of the pack for her searing portrayal of an aging celebrity, who goes to extreme lengths to stay young, in the body-horror film The Substance. Critiquing Hollywood and society’s impossible beauty standards, it was an ideal match of star and character, with a palpable meta quality to the nomination. After she won a Golden Globe in January — and delivered a heartfelt and moving speech — Moore moved into the pole position. Her SAG win last weekend seemed to cement her status as the frontrunner. So bank on the Ghost, St. Elmo’s Fire, and A Few Good Men star finally getting her flowers at age 62.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Also nominated: Yura Borisov, Anora; Guy Pearce, The Brutalist; Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown; Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
There’s not much suspense in this year’s Supporting Actor race, with Kieran Culkin, aka Succession‘s walking snark-attack Roman Roy, almost guaranteed to walk away with an Oscar for playing the insouciant, wildly exuberant and unpredictable Benji in A Real Pain opposite his persnickety, tightly wound cousin (the film’s writer-director Jesse Eisenberg). Benji is a confounding, uproarious riot. He can also be a storm of turmoil (a real pain!) but that’s because he’s in pain. Deep pain. Yes, Culkin plays a version of the sardonically charming persona he’s been flouting in public for years. But in his alternately sarcastic, charming and discursive acceptance speeches after winning Golden Globe, Screen Actors Guild and various other awards this season, Culkin has shown why voters are so seduced by his irreverent, smart-aleck, wryly bemused, manic chatterbox in A Real Pain. He’s a sure bet to be putting an Oscar next to the Emmy already on his shelf for Succession.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Peréz
Also nominated: Isabella Rossellini, Conclave; Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown; Ariana Grande, Wicked; Felicity Jones, The Brutalist.
Karla Sofía Gascón’s bigoted and racist tweets led to her awards-season flameout and sunk her and Emilia Peréz‘s chances at Oscar gold. But costar Zoe Saldaña has managed to hold steady and remain the forerunner here. As working-class attorney Rita, who gets recruited by a Mexican cartel kingpin (Gascón) to help them undergo a gender transition, facilitate the surgeries and a new legal identity, and then fake their death, Saldaña delivers a mesmerizing and moving performance. You see her tough, steely character struggling with the moral quandaries once “Emilia” returns. In an audacious, over-the-top musical crime story, Saldaña grounds the proceedings in a fully lived reality. Did we mention that she also dances and sings? Based on Saldaña’s wins at the Golden Globes, SAG Awards and BAFTAs, which all came after the Gascón controversy, it’s unlikely that the imbroglio could hurt Saldaña’s bid. Incomparable screen legend Isabella Rossellini, who earned her first-ever Oscar nomination, gave a quietly riveting turn as a nun who admonishes the cardinals in Conclave. Despite her lack of screen time, the 72-year-old Rossellini is unforgettable as always and beloved by voters. Is there a chance she could play spoiler?
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Sean Baker, Anora
Also nominated: Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain; Coralie Fargeat, The Substance; Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold, The Brutalist; Moritz Binder and Tim Fehlbaum, September 5
If Anora triumphs for Best Picture, there’s a good shot that writer-director Sean Baker will win for his alternately entertaining and harrowing screenplay that finds the rich and powerful running roughshod over a working-class woman. Jesse Eisenberg’s sardonic, exuberant, and moving script for A Real Pain could play spoiler, but the caveat is that the film failed to make the Best Picture nominations cut, which suggests support in the Academy could be more tepid. Corbet and Mona Fastvold’s towering work on The Brutalist has been overlooked, but it’s a longshot here. The genre film The Substance is an eye-popping, clever critique of society’s impossible beauty standards, but it’s a message that the film handles with the subtlety of a sledgehammer. Eisenberg won the BAFTA award, while Baker won the Writers Guild prize. Will voters want to spread the wealth, or will the rising Anora tide be too much to overcome?
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Peter Straughan, Conclave
Also nominated: Jacques Audiard, Emilia Peréz; Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley, Sing Sing; James Mangold and Jay Cocks, A Complete Unknown; RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes, Nickel Boys
James Mangold and Jay Cocks pushed the boundaries of the standard-issue biopic with their work on A Complete Unknown but it doesn’t seem to be generating buzz. RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes’ screenplay for Nickel Boys, based on the Pulitzer Prize-winning novel by Colson Whitehead, is a groundbreaking triumph as extensive first-person POV is written into the script. If there’s any justice, they’d win this category, especially after Ross was slighted — not even nominated! — for Nickel Boys’ breathtaking and unique first-person POV cinematography in that category. Unfortunately, the Nickel Boys nominations here and for Best Picture may be its reward. That’s because Peter Straughan has penned a riveting and tautly constructed thriller with Conclave, brimming with secret intrigue, hidden scandals and political machinations as Catholic Cardinals try to elect a new Pope. It’s the more conventional choice and will likely ride the wave of the film’s newfound momentum to grab this prize.
From TV Guide Magazine
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