27 Returning Shows Ranked From Least to Most Likely to Be Canceled
With the fall shows making their midseason returns, renewals and cancellations are bound to be on the mind for creators and viewers alike.
TV ratings are the numbers that make or break a TV show. The success of a show is measured primarily in audience size and ratings among the various age demographics. The 18-49 demo is the most coveted age group, as advertisers believe they have the most disposable income and are more likely to be swayed by ads than older viewers who perhaps have brand loyalty. A popular show means broadcast TV networks can charge more for advertisers to book slots in their commercial breaks, and those ad sales are how they make money. Streaming services, on the other hand, have a subscription model in addition to some ads on select subscription tiers.
The Fall 2024-25 TV ratings for broadcast shows are in. Here, we predict which returning shows (not new shows like High Potential or Matlock) are most likely to be canceled or renewed based on their audience size and ratings in the 18-49 demo.
Tracker
Ratings: 11.4 million viewers, 0.81 rating; broadcast’s most-watched scripted series and No. 1-rated drama of the 2024-25 season; audience has increased by 6 percent since Season 1
Prediction: Renewed
9-1-1
Ratings: 6.5 million viewers, 0.65 rating; TV’s No. 2-rated broadcast drama, ABC’s second-most watched scripted show behind High Potential
Prediction: ABC is clearly investing a lot in Ryan Murphy between 9-1-1, its upcoming potential spinoff, and Doctor Odyssey. A renewal is imminent.
Abbott Elementary
Ratings: 3.3 million viewers, 0.56 rating; ABC’s 10th-most watched show of Fall 2024; audience remains steady
Prediction: Given its steady viewership and ratings and the fact that it’s ABC’s only show getting awards recognition, a renewal is in the bag.
FBI Franchise
Ratings: FBI: 7.97 million viewers, 0.51 rating (CBS’s No. 5-most watched show); FBI: International: 6.46 million viewers, 0.42 rating; FBI: Most Wanted: 6.3 million viewers, 0.42 rating
Prediction: International and Most Wanted renewed (FBI was already picked up for the 2025-2026 season)
One Chicago Franchise
Ratings: NBC’s top-three most-watched scripted shows. Chicago Fire: 7.8 million viewers, 0.61 rating; NBC’s No. 1 non-sports program, broadcast’s No. 4-rated drama; audience down 8 percent. Chicago Med: 7.4 million viewers, 0.57 rating. Chicago P.D.: 6.9 million viewers, 0.60 rating; audience down 11 percent
Prediction: All three renewed
Elsbeth
Ratings: 7.7 million viewers, 0.45 rating; CBS’s seventh-most watched show of Fall 2024, 4 percent audience increase from Season 1, double the episodes ordered for Season 2
Prediction: Renewed
NCIS
Ratings: 7.6 million viewers, 0.52 rating; audience down 21 percent from last season; CBS’s eighth-most watched show
Prediction: While its audience decreased between seasons, its rating is higher than CBS shows with bigger audiences. We predict that’s enough for a renewal.
Ghosts
Ratings: 7.5 million viewers, 0.66 rating; TV’s top-rated, 2nd-most watched comedy, CBS’s ninth-most watched show overall
Prediction: High rating and top-ranked comedy means an easy renewal.
Law & Order Franchise
Ratings: Law & Order: SVU: 5.6 million viewers, 0.65 rating; Broadcast’s No. 2-rated drama; NBC’s seventh-most watched show; audience down 18 percent. Law & Order: 4.83 million viewers, 0.45 rating; audience down 16 percent
Prediction: Despite the audience dips, these shows are too legendary to cut without ample warning heading into the start of the seasons. Both will be renewed.
Fire Country
Ratings: 6.4 million viewers, 0.55 rating; audience is down 12 percent from Season 1; CBS’s 12th-most watched show
Prediction: Its ratings and fanbase are enough to merit a renewal, plus CBS is investing in a spinoff already, Sheriff Country.
The Irrational
Ratings: 4.87 million viewers, 0.39 rating; NBC’s ninth-most watched show; audience down 17 percent after moving to new night, but viewership is 9 percent higher than it was when Found was in this time slot
Prediction: Renewed
Grey's Anatomy
Ratings: 4 million viewers, 0.52 rating; ABC’s seventh-most watched show; audience is down 17 percent for Season 21 compared to Season 20, but it’s performing better than its timeslot predecessor/spinoff Station 19
Prediction: The audience dip, plus the fact that its rating is lower than ABC shows with smaller audiences, could be enough for ABC to end Grey‘s. We predict it will be renewed for a 22nd and final season.
The Neighborhood
Ratings: 4.7 million viewers, 0.46 rating; CBS’s 17th-most watched show; audience down 17 percent from Season 6
Prediction: It could be facing cancellation, but the sitcom has also been running for seven seasons already, proving it has a dedicated audience. This one could go either way.
The Equalizer
Ratings: 6.5 million viewers, 0.44 rating; CBS’s 10th-most watched show of the season, but audience is down 18 percent since moving to a later time slot
Prediction: Canceled after current season (Season 5) ends, or renewed and moved to a new day/time.
Fox Animated Shows
The Simpsons Ratings: 1.83 million viewers, 0.50 rating; numbers down 37 percent from Fall 2023; Fox’s most-watched animated show, 10th-most watched overall
Prediction: You don’t just cancel The Simpsons without notice. It will be renewed.
Universal Basic Guys Ratings: 1.82 million viewers, 0.50 rating; viewership down 10 percent; broadcast’s least-watched new show that’s not on The CW
Prediction: Could go either way.
Bob’s Burgers Ratings: 1.2 million viewers, 0.37 rating; numbers down 14 percent and 23 percent since Fall 2023; Fox’s 14th-most watched show out of 15
Prediction: Another iconic animated program that you can’t cancel cold turkey. Renewed.
Krapopolis Ratings: 807,000 viewers, 0.21 rating; numbers down 50 percent from Fall 2023; broadcast’s least-watched and lowest-rated TV show that’s not on The CW
Prediction: It’s been renewed for a fourth season already, but we predict that will be its last.
Found
Ratings: 3.9 million viewers, 0.41 rating; NBC’s 12th-most watched show; audience down 13 percent after moving nights, overall numbers down 23 percent and 33 percent from show in previous time slot slot, Law & Order: Organized Crime
Prediction: NBC moved Organized Crime to Peacock out of the time slot Found now occupies, and its numbers have only decreased. Found may have a higher rating than The Irrational, but The Irrational is performing better in Found‘s old time than Found did. Sadly, this may mean it will be canceled despite critical praise for the second season.
S.W.A.T.
Ratings: 5.6 million viewers, 0.47 rating; No. 16 out of CBS’s 20 most-watched shows; audience down 8 percent but rating is steady
Prediction: Given that it was canceled and then saved once already, the lack of a massive audience for the saved season hints that another cancellation is imminent.
Accused
Ratings: 2.35 million viewers, 0.22 rating; Fox’s eighth-most watched show, but broadcast’s least-watched and lowest-rated drama that’s not on The CW; numbers down 38 percent and 63 percent from Season 1
Prediction: If Fox doesn’t mind getting rid of one of its only primetime dramas, then it will be canceled.
Night Court
Ratings: 2.9 million viewers, 0.33 rating; audience down 24 percent after moving to later time; NBC’s 16th-most watched show out of 17; its canceled time slot predecessor, Extended Family, had higher overall numbers
Prediction: Canceled
Lopez vs. Lopez
Ratings: 2.3 million viewers, 0.26 rating. Steady viewership and ratings, but NBC’s least-watched (17th out of 17) and lowest-rated show
Prediction: With new comedies Happy’s Place and St. Denis Medical outperforming both Lopez vs. Lopez and Night Court, we predict NBC will cancel these two comedies after their third seasons end.
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